Bitcoin Realized Price
Realized Price is the average on-chain acquisition price of all BTC in circulation. The MVRV Z-Score measures how far market price deviates from realized price in standard deviations — historically a powerful indicator for identifying cycle tops and bottoms.
Loading on-chain data from Coin Metrics...
What is MVRV Z-Score?
The MVRV Z-Score measures the standard deviation between Bitcoin's market cap and its realized cap. Unlike the simple MVRV ratio, the Z-Score accounts for volatility, making extreme values more statistically meaningful across different market regimes.
Z = (Market Cap − Realized Cap) ÷ σ(Market Cap)
How to Read MVRV Z-Score
Z < 1 (Green Zone) — Market cap near or below realized cap. Historically marks bear market bottoms (Nov 2022: ~0.5, Mar 2020: ~0.5, Jan 2019: ~0.5).
1 ≤ Z ≤ 3 — Fair value zone. Normal bull/bear market range. Market cap is 1-3 standard deviations above realized cap.
Z > 7 (Red Zone) — Market cap is 7+ standard deviations above realized cap. Historically coincides with major cycle tops (Dec 2017, Apr 2021, Nov 2021).
MVRV Z-Score Historical Reference
| Z-Score Range | Signal | Historical Examples |
|---|---|---|
| > 7.0 | Major cycle top — extreme euphoria | Dec 2017 (8.5), Apr 2021 (7.5), Nov 2021 (7.2) |
| 3.0 – 7.0 | Bull market — getting heated | Jan 2021 (3.9), Oct 2024 (3.9), Jan 2025 (4.9) |
| 1.0 – 3.0 | Fair value — normal range | Jul 2023 (1.1), Jul 2024 (3.7), Jul 2025 (2.5) |
| 0 – 1.0 | Undervalued — accumulation zone | Oct 2022 (0.5), Mar 2020 (0.5), Jan 2019 (0.5) |
| < 0 | Deeply undervalued — rare bottom | Jan 2015 (−0.5), occasional capitulation wicks |
Market Price vs Realized Price
Realized Price is calculated by summing the value of every UTXO at the price when it last moved, divided by circulating supply. This gives the average cost basis of all BTC holders. When market price falls below realized price, the average holder is underwater — historically a strong accumulation signal and cycle bottom indicator.
Data Sources & Methodology
Realized cap data is derived from on-chain UTXO analysis. Each UTXO is valued at the BTC price when it last moved, producing a valuation grounded in actual economic activity rather than speculative pricing. The Z-Score uses a rolling standard deviation to normalize the MVRV ratio across different market regimes.
Real-time data available via Glassnode, CoinMetrics, or CoinGlass APIs. The chart above uses approximate historical data for demonstration.
Data is approximate and for demonstration purposes. Real-time on-chain data available via Glassnode, CoinMetrics, or CryptoQuant APIs. Not financial advice. MVRV Z-Score methodology based on original work by Murad Mahmudov and David Puell.