Bitcoin Realized Price
Realized Price is the average on-chain acquisition price of all BTC in circulation. The MVRV Z-Score measures how far market price deviates from realized price in standard deviations — historically a powerful indicator for identifying cycle tops and bottoms.
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What is MVRV Z-Score?
The MVRV Z-Score measures the standard deviation between Bitcoin's market cap and its realized cap. Unlike the simple MVRV ratio, the Z-Score accounts for volatility, making extreme values more statistically meaningful across different market regimes.
Z = (Market Cap − Realized Cap) ÷ σ(Market Cap)
How to Read MVRV Z-Score
Z < 1 (Green Zone) — Market cap near or below realized cap. Historically marks bear market bottoms (Nov 2022: ~0.5, Mar 2020: ~0.5, Jan 2019: ~0.5).
1 ≤ Z ≤ 3 — Fair value zone. Normal bull/bear market range. Market cap is 1-3 standard deviations above realized cap.
Z > 7 (Red Zone) — Market cap is 7+ standard deviations above realized cap. Historically coincides with major cycle tops (Dec 2017, Apr 2021, Nov 2021).
MVRV Z-Score Historical Reference
| Z-Score Range | Signal | Historical Examples |
|---|---|---|
| > 7.0 | Major cycle top — extreme euphoria | Dec 2017 (8.5), Apr 2021 (7.5), Nov 2021 (7.2) |
| 3.0 – 7.0 | Bull market — getting heated | Jan 2021 (3.9), Oct 2024 (3.9), Jan 2025 (4.9) |
| 1.0 – 3.0 | Fair value — normal range | Jul 2023 (1.1), Jul 2024 (3.7), Jul 2025 (2.5) |
| 0 – 1.0 | Undervalued — accumulation zone | Oct 2022 (0.5), Mar 2020 (0.5), Jan 2019 (0.5) |
| < 0 | Deeply undervalued — rare bottom | Jan 2015 (−0.5), occasional capitulation wicks |
Market Price vs Realized Price
Realized Price is calculated by summing the value of every UTXO at the price when it last moved, divided by circulating supply. This gives the average cost basis of all BTC holders. When market price falls below realized price, the average holder is underwater — historically a strong accumulation signal and cycle bottom indicator.
Data Sources & Methodology
Realized cap data is derived from on-chain UTXO analysis. Each UTXO is valued at the BTC price when it last moved, producing a valuation grounded in actual economic activity rather than speculative pricing. The Z-Score uses a rolling standard deviation to normalize the MVRV ratio across different market regimes.
Real-time data available via Glassnode, CoinMetrics, or CoinGlass APIs. The chart above uses approximate historical data for demonstration.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score and how is it calculated?
MVRV Z-Score measures how far Bitcoin's market cap deviates from its realized cap in standard deviations. The formula is: Z = (Market Cap − Realized Cap) ÷ σ(Market Cap). Realized cap values each UTXO at the price when it last moved — giving the average on-chain cost basis. The Z-Score uses a 1-year rolling standard deviation to normalize the ratio across different market regimes. Values above 7 historically signal cycle tops (Dec 2017, Nov 2021). Values below 1 signal accumulation zones.
What's the difference between Bitcoin realized price and market price?
Market price is the current trading price on exchanges — driven by speculation, news, and short-term supply/demand. Realized price is the average on-chain cost basis of every BTC in circulation, calculated from UTXO movement data. When market price drops below realized price, the average BTC holder is underwater — historically a strong accumulation signal. This metric filters out short-term noise and reflects genuine capital inflows and outflows.
How to use MVRV Z-Score for Bitcoin trading?
MVRV Z-Score works best as a cycle-level indicator, not a daily trading signal. Use it to answer one question: "Are we near a top or a bottom?" Z-Score above 7 (red zone) has marked every major Bitcoin top. Z-Score below 1 (green zone) has marked every major bottom — including March 2020, November 2022 (FTX), and January 2019. At the current reading (~+0.5σ as of July 2026), Bitcoin sits near fair value — not an extreme, and not a clear signal either way. Combine MVRV with other indicators (Fear & Greed Index, volume, technical analysis) before making trading decisions.
Is Bitcoin undervalued right now according to on-chain data?
As of July 2026, Bitcoin's MVRV Z-Score is roughly +0.5σ — near fair value, not deeply undervalued. For comparison: March 2020 bottom was ~0.5σ, November 2022 (FTX crash) was ~0.5σ, and January 2015 was ~−0.5σ. Current levels suggest Bitcoin is reasonably priced relative to its on-chain cost basis, but not at the kind of extreme undervaluation that marked previous generational bottoms. Check the chart above for real-time data — we update daily.
What are the best on-chain indicators for Bitcoin market cycles?
Beyond MVRV Z-Score, traders watch: (1) SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) — whether coins are moving in profit or loss, (2) Puell Multiple — miner revenue relative to its 365-day average, (3) Exchange Net Flow — BTC moving on/off exchanges (more on exchanges = potential selling pressure), and (4) HODL Waves — the age distribution of UTXOs. MVRV Z-Score is the most statistically rigorous of these, which is why we feature it as our primary on-chain tool.
Data is approximate and for demonstration purposes. Real-time on-chain data available via Glassnode, CoinMetrics, or CryptoQuant APIs. Not financial advice. MVRV Z-Score methodology based on original work by Murad Mahmudov and David Puell.